Western Conference Finals Overview and Prediction

The 2023 Western Conference Finals will feature a 2020 rematch between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Lakers. One team has been dominating the Western Conference all year while the other went through a serious makeover during the season. This matchup should be a very exciting matchup with all of the potential adjustments, so let’s get into it.

(1) Denver Nuggets vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

Denver Nuggets Overview

The Nuggets have surprised me this past round. I’ll take my L there, as it didn’t cross my mind that Phoenix isn’t a high-volume 3PT shooting team nor do they put pressure on the rim. Gotta give credit where it’s due, Denver’s defense was very impressive vs a Kevin Durant/Devin Booker led offense. When they fully exert their energy, they can really disrupt opponent’s offense. Granted, they’ve gotten favorable matchups in both series (a poorly spaced Timberwolves team and a Suns team that was too top-heavy and didn’t trust their role players whatsoever). Offensively, the Nuggets are cruising (big shocker). Nikola Jokic is able to control the game anywhere on the court since he can do it all on offense. In transition, the Nuggets other players do a great job of pushing the pace, but it becomes much more dangerous when Jokic gets the rebound due to his amplified vision in a full court setting. If he doesn’t, look for him to seal early to get deeper post positioning. I haven’t even mentioned the deadly 2-man game between Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. They have so many options and reads out of any action, whether it would be Jokic pick and popping, rolling off a handoff, finding a cutting Jamal, or even have Jamal set the ball screen when defenses deny. Lastly, they have home court advantage in the high altitude of Denver, Colorado. They might have the best HC advantage in the NBA, and their record reflects that. Overall, very solid stuff from Denver so far.

Los Angeles Lakers Overview

Another prediction gone wrong for me. I predicted the Warriors beating the Lakers in six games, only for it to be the other way around. Anthony Davis has been so good defensively that I can’t even put into words, as I’m writing this article. The Lakers have been the best playoff defense this year, holding opponents to 1.07 points per possession. The job they did on Stephen Curry this past series has been as great as it gets when it comes to neutralizing him. Offensively, they haven’t been great to say the least. It still revolves around LeBron and AD, but now both of those guys are setting more ball screens for their guards in Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell, and Dennis Schröder. They use these pick-and-roll actions a ton to not only get scoring looks for their guards, but to pressure the rim so they can find spaces for Bron and AD to attack off the catch. LeBron’s usage has gone down in this playoffs, but everything still revolves around him. It’s just that the Lakers are incorporating more players into the offense. LeBron’s approach is patient as he tries to get a feel for which teammates have it going. He picks up on this pretty quickly and when things go south, he still has that next gear he can kick into and is more than capable of completely taking over the game.

Matchup

Like I said earlier, this series should be a very entertaining one. People may think that Denver’s defense shouldn’t struggle against a lowly Laker offense, and they could very well be right. Denver doesn’t have to worry about Jokic in space trying to guard elite pull-up shooters coming off screens, and it’s not like the Lakers have a Kevin Durant or Devin Booker type of shot-maker. The Lakers offense is more calculated with their ball-screening, but they don’t have the threats who can come off screens fast. Denver isn’t very good at containing dribble-drives, so rim pressure will be very key for the Lakers. Thankfully, they’re good at deterring players from the rim, but when players do get to the rim….yeah, it’s bad. LeBron can still put tons of pressure on the rim, despite his age, but it’s very inconsistent to say the least. Anthony Davis’s ability to convert on lobs and grab offensive boards also puts tons of pressure on the rim. Out of all three of Denver’s opponents, the Lakers are the best equipped to exploit their defensive weaknesses the most, despite their subpar offense. The Lakers don’t have great spacing, so I suppose the Nuggets can have their other defenders help on attacks to the rim. On the other end, this is where things get a bit more interesting. Obviously, Anthony Davis is going to matchup with Jokic, but here’s the thing, Jokic can shoot the 3-ball. Centers who can space the floor are a huge threat to the Lakers’ defensive scheme because it opens up so many rim opportunities. Even at times vs the Warriors when AD was switched onto Curry, Golden State was able to attack the basket. If AD wants to sag, then lanes are clogged, but then he has to react to handoff actions, Nuggets 3PT shooting, and Jokic pick and pop. I don’t know how the Lakers try to guard the Jokic pick-and-pop. AD sagging also allows Jokic to make any read with little to no resistance. Most teams try to mitigate this issue by having their guards late switch (known as veer back switching) onto the pick and pop and have the ball-screen defender switch. It goes without saying that putting a smaller player on Jokic creates so many problems. So, does this mean the Lakers trap Jokic in the post? Teams don’t really double Jokic too much, but when they do, the Nuggets offense drops in points per possession. Someone like Jarred Vanderbilt can help with this and the Lakers could put Anthony Davis onto Aaron Gordon early in possessions to have him help on Jokic post-ups. However, Jokic finds the open man too easily, so I’m not sure if trapping is the way to go. Overall, I think both defenses are in a bind, but it’s clear which offense is superior.

Prediction: Nuggets win 4–3

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